With less than three weeks left before the Nov. 4 election between Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, an FDU poll released Friday shows Sherrill holds a 7-point lead, 52% to 45%, with 3% of voters saying that they’re still undecided.
The survey of likely voters was conducted by Braun Research of Princeton between Oct. 9 and Oct. 15 following the final gubernatorial debate. FDU’s previous poll in July had given Sherrill an 8-point lead (45% to 37%) with 16% of voters undecided.
Other recent public polls conducted in the days following the Oct. 8 gubernatorial debate have also shown a tightening race. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Sherrill with a narrower 6-point lead over Ciattarelli (50% to 44%), and a Fox News poll released Thursday gives Sherrill a 5-point edge (50% to 45%).
The FDU poll shows that both Democrats and Republicans have largely lined up behind their candidates, said Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU poll. He said 93% of Democrats now say that they’ll vote for Sherrill (up 6 points from July), and 96% of Republicans say that they’ll back Ciattarelli (up 10 points from July).
According to the FDU poll, Ciattarelli’s support among Republicans is a little softer than Sherrill’s among Democrats, with 11% of Republicans saying that they’ll “probably,” rather than “definitely” vote for their party’s nominee, versus 7% among Democrats. The biggest difference in the last few months has been the dwindling percentage of undecided voters, who have gone from 16% of likely voters to 3%.
“Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates,” said Cassino.
The sampling margin of error in the latest FDU poll was +/- 3.4%.
Sherrill is a former naval officer who has represented New Jersey’s 11th District in Congress since 2019. Ciattarelli is a businessman and former state assemblyman who narrowly lost to Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. Murphy cannot run again in 2025 because of constitutional term limits.
More information about the candidates’ policy positions can be found on their websites: jack4nj.com and mikiesherrill.com.
