Retail theft levels showed signs of stabilizing in 2025, but retailers are facing growing threats from fraud, organized retail crime and other forms of external theft, according to a recent report from the National Retail Federation and the Loss Prevention Research Council.
The Impact of Theft & Violence 2026 report released July 30 found shoplifting incidents declined 12.4% in 2025 compared with 2024, while retail merchandise theft fell 8.1%.
At the same time, retailers reported increases in other forms of external theft, fraud and scams as organized retail crime groups increasingly target both physical stores and digital retail channels.
"After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training," David Johnston, NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations, said in a statement. He said organized criminals are increasingly turning to crimes such as cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud.
The report attributes the decline in shoplifting in part to retailers' investments in security technology, enhanced store safety measures, and improved analysis of theft patterns to better target prevention efforts.
At the same time, retailers reported increases in repeat offenders, organized retail crime incidents and walkout or pushout thefts (brazenly pushing a loaded shopping cart out the front doors). Fraud also continues to rise, with respondents citing increases in phone scams, loyalty program fraud and gift card theft or fraud.
"Trusted research is essential to understanding these threats and how they continue to evolve," said Read Hayes, executive director of the Loss Prevention Research Council and a research scientist at the University of Florida.
Violence also remains a concern, according to the report. Retailers reported continued increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents. In response, many said they are expanding workplace violence prevention efforts through management and employee training, along with investments in risk intelligence technologies.
Tony D'Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions, said retailers are increasingly using data and connected technologies to combat retail crime but emphasized that collaboration among retailers, communities and law enforcement remains essential.
The survey also found many theft incidents are still unreported to police. Nearly two-thirds of retailers said they report fewer than half of store-related theft incidents. The most common reasons cited were that losses were too small or did not meet felony thresholds, along with concerns about inadequate law enforcement response.
The NRF renewed its call for the U.S. Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, legislation that would strengthen coordination among federal, state and local law enforcement agencies investigating organized retail crime.
The survey was conducted online between February and April 2026 among senior loss prevention and security executives. Sixty-six retail companies representing 143 brands participated. Together, those companies accounted for $1.7 trillion in retail sales during fiscal 2025, or about 31.6% of total U.S. retail sales. Most respondents employed more than 10,000 workers, and 38% operated at least 1,000 stores.
