Semiconductor executives are confident about the year ahead, but their optimism is running directly into mounting concerns over supply chain stability, energy security, and talent shortages, a new survey finds.
The 21st annual Global Semiconductor Outlook by the U.S. audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG LLP and the Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) found that the bullish industry outlook is tempered by significant operational and geopolitical risks. For the first time in the survey’s history, tariffs and trade policy surpass talent risk as the executives’ No. 1 concern.
Fueled by the AI boom, 93% of industry leaders expect revenue growth in 2026. This confidence has pushed the KPMG Semiconductor Industry Confidence Index to 63, the third-highest score in two decades (a value above 50 indicates a more positive outlook than negative).
“We're seeing a fundamental surge in semiconductor demand that spans the entire economy—from AI and data centers to electric vehicles,” said Chad Seiler, Line of Business Leader, Technology, Media and Telecom at KPMG US.
“This broad-based demand creates a more resilient growth trajectory, but it also creates intense pressure. Leaders are now faced with the challenge of capitalizing on this historic opportunity while simultaneously navigating supply chain, energy and talent challenges.”
KPMG U.S. and GSA conducted the survey during the fourth quarter of 2025, capturing insights from 151 semiconductor industry executives. Over half of the global respondents are leaders in companies with over $1 billion in annual revenue.
Key Findings:
- More than half of semiconductor leaders (54%) expect their company's revenue to grow by 11% or more in the coming year.
- AI (73%) extended its lead as the top application driving revenue, followed by cloud/data centers (61%), wireless communications (57%) and automotive (56%).
- Memory (including high-bandwidth memory) has surged 18 points year-over-year to become the industry's top product growth opportunity, tying with the long-time leader microprocessors (67% and 66%, respectively).
- Over the next three years, 34% are concerned about the semiconductor industry being able to procure enough energy to power their fabrication/manufacturing facilities. When asked about hyperscalers being able to procure enough energy to power their data centers, that concern nearly doubles to 58%.
- Making the supply chain more flexible and adaptable to geopolitical changes and other disruptions (45%) has risen to become the No. 1 strategic priority for companies in the semiconductor industry over the next three years. The top action to achieve this is increasing the geographical diversity of the supply chain (54%).
The full Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook report will be released in early 2026, KPMG said in a statement on Dec. 16.
