An analysis by The Pew Charitable Trusts finds that manufacturing-intensive states and those with deep ties to global trade, such as New Jersey, are among the most vulnerable to potential fiscal disruptions linked to increased import costs.
New Jersey and other states with large coastal ports could feel tariff pressures directly through shifting shipping volumes and logistics disruptions, said Justin Theal of Pew’s Fiscal 50 Project. Global imports totaling $153 billion made up 18.1% of New Jersey’s gross domestic product in 2024, he said.
Other coastal states where imports make up a large portion of state GDP include South Carolina (16.6%), Georgia (16.5%), Texas (16.7%) and California (12.0%).
Additionally, states whose economies are anchored in manufacturing that rely heavily on the use of imported materials and parts, particularly automotives and metals industries in the Great Lakes and Southeast, also face heighted financial uncertainties, Theal said.
Tariffs could significantly inflate production costs and disrupt local economies in Kentucky (where imports make up 32.3% of state GDP), Michigan (24.5%), Tennessee (21.9%), Indiana (20.2%), Illinois (19.2%) and Alabama (12.1%), he said.
“The exposure of a state’s finances can vary dramatically depending on how heavily the state relies on imported goods relative to its total economy (measured by gross domestic product, or GDP), how much each state purchases in tariffed goods, and how dependent it is on tax revenues that are sensitive to shifts in consumer spending,” Theal said.
“While all states face some degree of fiscal disruption from increased tariffs, any resulting effects will take time to surface in state budget data," Theal said. “However, the uncertainty alone can be enough to affect economic behaviors and prompt consumers to become more cautious; slow spending; and cause businesses to delay investments.”
Many states are proactively lowering their revenue forecasts to account for any tariff-related uncertainties and other mounting fiscal and economic disruptions, he said.
Nationally, the U.S. imported $3.3 trillion worth of goods in 2024, which represented 11.2% of total economic activity. Imports were concentrated in the following commodities:
- computer & electronic products ($550 billion)
- transportation equipment ($490 billion)
- chemicals ($390 billion)
- machinery, except electrical ($250 billion)
- electrical equipment, appliances & components ($200 billion)
The top U.S. imports by dollar value—and therefore those most exposed to increased tariffs—include computers, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and electrical equipment. Goods from China are especially relevant, because its products have faced some of the steepest U.S. tariffs and drawn some of the most extensive retaliatory measures, such as new tariffs and other trade barriers imposed in response.
New Jersey imported $14.2 billion in goods from China in 2024, about 1.7% of the state’s GDP, the Pew analysis said.
Theal said there’s relatively little historical precedent for what happens when the U.S. erects broad-based trade barriers in such a short period of time, which complicates the efforts of state officials to plan future budgets.
“Although manufacturers, importers, and wholesalers are paying the new and expanded tariffs now, it remains unclear how quickly—and how fully—the added costs will be passed on to consumers through higher prices, and how that will affect state tax revenues and spending,” Theal said.
To read the complete Pew analysis, go here.
