Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 6 percentage points (48%-42%) in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to a StimSight Research Poll for InsiderNJ.
Another 1% of probable voters say they will definitely vote for third-party candidate on Nov. 4, leaving 9% who say they are undecided. There is still room for movement, even among those currently backing one of the two major party candidates, as only 32% are definite about voting for Sherrill and 31% are definite about Ciattarelli.
The results, based on a StimSight Research Poll conducted July 18-24, show the closest margin yet between the two candidates. A Fairleigh Dickinson poll conducted July 17-23 put Sherrill 8 points ahead of Ciattarelli (45% to 37%) with 16% of voters undecided.
Sherrill is a former naval officer who has represented New Jersey’s 11 District in Congress since 2019. Ciattarelli is a businessman and former state assemblyman who narrowly lost to Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. Murphy cannot run again in 2025 because of constitutional term limits.
The StimSight poll showed that affordability (53%) and taxes (43%) are the themes of this election, rising to the top of a list of 13 different issues that voters say are most important to them in choosing a candidate for governor.
Among voters who name affordability as one of their top issues, Sherrill (36%) and Ciattarelli (34%) run about evenly on who can better handle it, but the Republican has an overwhelming advantage among those concerned with lowering taxes (50% for Ciattarelli to 15% for Sherrill). The Democrat has a small edge on being able to provide economic opportunities for New Jersey families (54% to 49%).
Concern about protecting Social Security and Medicare (30%) is also important as a component of the affordability issue. Only 36% approve of the “Big Beautiful Bill” and 51% say it will hurt New Jersey families.
President Trump (44%) and Governor Murphy (45%) get similar job approval ratings from Garden State voters. The blame for New Jersey’s current problems is spread across the state government (37%), the national government (27%) and both levels of government equally (34%).
“The Murphy and Trump numbers are basically a wash. That suggests voters are looking for someone they can trust to address their economic worries, and not someone who just takes swings at the leadership of the opposite party,” said Patrick Murray of StimSight Research, the firm that conducted the poll for Insider NJ.
New Jersey’s “wrong track” number is 63% and 8 in 10 voters say it is time for a change in how the state is run, with a majority (55%) strongly agreeing with this view. At the current time, Sherrill has a slight advantage on being seen as a positive change agent (53%, to 47%).
Sherrill’s personal ratings (47% favorable/31% unfavorable) are somewhat better than Ciattarelli’s (43% favorable/39% unfavorable). Sherrill is preferred over Ciattarelli on some key candidate qualities, including being seen as more caring (45% to 31%), trustworthy (43% to 33%), and optimistic (43% to 35%). Sherrill also has a narrow edge on being seen as more competent (42%, to 39% for Ciattarelli). However, he is seen as being more strong (43%, to 38% for Sherrill).
Both political parties are viewed negatively – 58% unfavorable for the Democratic Party and 55% unfavorable for the Republican Party. Most see both Sherrill (57%) and Ciattarelli (59%) as typical party politicians. Few say either seems like someone who can be independent of their respective parties (24% for Sherrill and 19% for Ciattarelli).
The survey was sponsored by Insider NJ and conducted by StimSight Research with a sample of 1,108 probable voters in the 2025 New Jersey general election. The sampling margin of error for this poll is +3.3 percentage points.
