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Americans are losing some confidence in the economy but they are split 50-50 on whether or not there will be a recession in the next year, according to the September Gallup Economic Confidence Index.

The numbers are still in positive territory. The index, which is an average of Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions and their views of whether the economy is getting better or worse, fell from +24 in August to +17 in September.

Additionally, more Americans (48%) think economic conditions are getting worse than are getting better (46%). The last time more people thought the economy was getting worse, rather than getting better, was during the government shutdown in January.

Americans are equally divided on whether or not an economic recession is imminent. Gallup reports that half of Americans say a recession is “not too” (32%) or “not at all” likely (18%) in the next year and a roughly equal share say it is “very” (15%) or “fairly” (34%) likely.

“While some economic indicators remain strong, many economists are sounding the alarm that a recession is coming in the near future,” Gallup writer Megan Brenan concluded. “This latest polling finds that not all Americans are taking that warning to heart.”

The Economic Confidence Index results are from a Sept. 3-15 Gallup poll.

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