A new report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) identifies 10 career pathway changes involving education, training, and work experience with the greatest potential to improve employment outcomes for young adults.
In What Works: Ten Education, Training, and Work-Based Pathway Changes That Lead to Good Jobs, funded by a philanthropic investment from JPMorgan Chase, CEW researchers developed the Pathways-to-Career policy simulation model, which uses longitudinal data to identify promising junctures at which a strategic intervention could increase the likelihood of working in a good job. CEW defines a good job as one with median annual earnings of $57,000, at age 30.
“Our research clearly indicates that the bachelor’s degree is still the most traveled pathway to a good job. But through this work, we also find there are alternative pathways to good jobs through career and technical education (CTE) and work experience,” CEW Director and lead author Anthony P. Carnevale said. “Pathways to good jobs are especially strengthened through comprehensive policy efforts that layer effective interventions on top of one another.”
Some of the pathway changes CEW identifies as the most effective involve increasing educational attainment, especially progressing toward attainment of a bachelor’s degree. Others replace or combine classroom learning with on-the-job learning, capitalizing on the growth that occurs when workers gain access to jobs in high-demand fields that equip them with both general and sector-specific skills. Layering certain pathway changes can further boost the number of workers in good jobs at age 30 by ensuring that the potential benefits from investments at earlier life stages are fully realized.
For example, ensuring college completion after putting the 4.8 million eligible academically prepared young adults in the current cohort of 18-to-22-year-olds on the pathway to a bachelor’s degree could result in 1.2 million more young adults in this cohort in good jobs at age 30. That’s almost a 60% increase over expanding enrollment in bachelor’s degree programs alone, which could put 765,000 more young adults in good jobs.
The effectiveness of the 10 pathway changes varies by race, gender, and class. For example, specializing in CTE in high school increases the likelihood of having a good job at age 30 for white and Black/African American young adults, but reduces the likelihood of having a good job at age 30 for Hispanic/Latino young adults.
In addition, some pathway changes have the potential for much larger numerical gains among white young adults than among Black/African American or Hispanic/Latino young adults simply because more white young adults are eligible for each pathway change.
“We can build stronger pathways to good jobs in young adulthood through education, sectoral training, and workforce development,” said Zack Mabel, report co-author and research professor at CEW. “But addressing disparities in access to good jobs also requires combating bias and discrimination in the labor market, directing investments toward individuals from historically disadvantaged groups, and raising wages in undervalued occupations that are mostly filled by workers from marginalized groups and are crucial to the functioning of our society.”
The 10 pathway changes that the report says could substantially increase the number of young adults working in good jobs at age 30 are:
For youth in high school:
- Specialize in career and technical education (CTE) in high school. The report notes there are 6.6 million youth in the current high school cohort who are not expected to enter a bachelor’s degree program by age 22 and who do not currently specialize in CTE in high school. If these youth received more high school CTE instruction, 186,000 could have good jobs at age 30.
For young adults starting on the high school pathway:
- Enter a certificate or associate degree program by age 22. There are 4.7 million high school graduates in the current college-age cohort who are not expected to pursue a certificate, associate degree, or bachelor’s degree by age 22. The report said 261,000 more people in this cohort could have a good job at age 30 if they pursued a certificate or associate degree.
- Enter a bachelor’s degree program by age 22. There are 4.8 million high school graduates in the current college-age cohort who are academically prepared to enter a bachelor’s degree program but are not expected to pursue this goal by age 22. Moving these individuals onto a bachelor’s degree pathway could result in 765,000 more adults with good jobs at age 30.
- Work in a blue-collar occupation at age 22. There are 2.7 million young adults with no more than a high school diploma who are expected to be working in low-paying occupations at age 22. If these individuals instead had jobs in blue-collar occupations, 45,000 additional young adults in this cohort could have a good job at age 30.
- Experience continuous employment from ages 20 to 22. Eliminating employment gaps that stymie career advancement for high school graduates could result in 148,000 more young adults in this cohort having good jobs at age 30.
- Work in a STEM or other high-paying occupation at age 22. If the 2.7 million young adults who are expected to start out in low-paying jobs after high school instead worked in science, technology, engineering, or mathematics (STEM) or other high-paying occupations at age 22, 310,000 could have good jobs at age 30.
For young adults starting on the middle-skills pathway:
- Earn an associate degree by age 26 after enrolling in a certificate or associate degree program. There are 2.6 million young adults in the college-age cohort who enroll in a certificate or associate degree program by age 22, but who are not expected to earn a college degree by age 26. Ensuring that these individuals complete an associate degree could result in 201,000 more young adults in this cohort with good jobs at age 30.
- Earn a bachelor’s degree by age 26 after enrolling in a certificate or associate degree program. There are 3.4 million young adults in the college-age cohort who enroll in a certificate or associate program by age 22, but who are not expected to subsequently transfer to a four-year institution and complete a bachelor’s degree by age 26. If these adults did complete a bachelor’s degree, 479,000 more individuals in this cohort could have a good job at age 30.
For young adults starting on the bachelor’s degree pathway:
- Earn an associate degree by age 26 after enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program. There are 3 million young adults in the college-age cohort who enroll in a bachelor’s degree program by age 22, but who are not expected to earn a college degree by age 26. If these individuals were to transfer their credits to a two-year institution and complete an associate degree, 242,000 more young adults in this cohort could have good jobs at age 30.
- Earn a bachelor’s degree by age 26 after enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program. There are 3.6 million young adults who start down the bachelor’s degree pathway, but who aren’t expected to earn a bachelor’s degree by age 26. Ensuring that these individuals complete a bachelor’s degree could put 573,000 more young adults in this cohort in a good job at age 30.
To view the full report, including a detailed appendix on methodology, go to https://cew.georgetown.edu/pathway-changes.
